2021 Gundolf Beier Award Winning Paper

Abstract

In 2018 in the US, there were 4,985 motorcyclist fatalities and approximately 82,000 motorcyclists injured. One mitigation strategy is passenger vehicle (PV) mounted motorcycle-detecting automatic emergency braking (MD-AEB). The objective of this study was to characterise the MD-AEB target population and perform a safety benefits analysis for MD-AEB systems. To do this, two national databases, the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and the General Estimates System (GES), were used to identify the percentage of crashes which could be positively influenced by MD-AEB. These crashes were then characterised by crash and environmental factors. The HLDI 2015 market penetration curve for frontal crash prevention technology was then used to estimate MD-AEB prevalence in future US fleets. To predict crash and K+A+B (KABCO injury scale) injury reduction over 50 years we considered crash incidence rate as a function of vehicle miles travelled, MD-AEB prevalence in the fleet, and crash and injury-inducing crash reduction effectiveness. The target population for MD-AEB accounts for 8% and 9% of all fatal and police-reported motorcycle crashes, respectively. MD-AEB has the potential to mitigate or prevent 6,513 KAB injury crashes and 13,485 crashes by the year 2045 and even more upon reaching full market penetration (95%) in 2065.

Full Text

Dean, ME, Sherony, R, Gabler, HC, "Potential Crash Benefits of Motorcycle-Detecting Automatic Emergency Braking Systems." IRCOBI Conference Proceedings. 2021. Remote.